The Cipher Brief

What Would It Take to End the Regime in Iran? A Complex Equation of Opposition, Leadership and Geopolitics. #TheCipherBrief

Iran is reeling from days of Israeli strikes — and the regime may not survive it. In our latest Cipher Brief report, national security experts, including Norm Roule, General (Ret) Frank McKenzie and others assess how close Tehran is to a tipping point: - Nuclear and military command decapitated - U.S. forces repositioning in the region - The Supreme Leader in hiding What happens next — and what it means for regional stability, energy markets, and U.S. forces — is the focus of this exclusive Subscriber+ piece. 🔒 Read more: [https://lnkd.in/emgejDBx]

Will Israel's attack on Iran change the course of the situation in Yemen and Tehran's support for the Houthis? Must-read from two people well-poised to answer, CEP Senior Advisor Edmund Fitton-Brown & nonresident fellow Ari Heistein via The Cipher Brief: https://lnkd.in/eD6bWuAY

“This is a different era — advanced centrifuges, zero IAEA oversight, and a covert path to a bomb.” Former ODNI Iran chief Norm Roule analyzes Israel’s multi-pronged attack on Iranian nuclear targets — and what intelligence experts are watching for next. This is part of a new Cipher Brief series on the operation and its aftermath. Available exclusively to Subscriber+ members. #TheCipherBrief

Israel’s targeting of Iranian nuclear targets comes at a time when Iran has never been weaker. The abilities of Iran’s traditional proxies – Hamas, Hezbollah and others often called on to launch attack against enemies of the regime - have been all but decimated so how will they try and reconstitute and could Israel or the U.S. stop them?  #TheCipherBrief

Technology has served as a critical accelerant in Iran’s bid to develop a nuclear weapon. The Cipher Brief speaks with Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at ODNI and regional expert Norm Roule for his take on what Iran may do next and how technology has served as a critical accelerant in Iran’s effort to develop a nuclear weapon. #TheCipherBrief

What Does Israel Want? After a surprising wave of deadly strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear program and the leaders and staff associated with it, what is Israel expecting when it comes to dismantling Tehran’s efforts to develop a nuclear weapon?  #TheCipherBrief Watch the full video on our YouTube channel now.

NEW episode of the #StateSecrets Podcast is out now. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Ukrainians have used every resource available to fight back. From aid packages and weapons systems acquired from western allies to mobilizing every sector of society to bring innovation to the fight, Ukraine has stayed alive largely because of its adaptations of technology and its ingenuity on the battlefield. As part of a special delegation that visited Kyiv last month – led by former CIA Director General David Petraeus, The Cipher Brief met senior Chief Warrant Officer Joey Gagnard, who retired from the U.S. Special Operations Community earlier this year. As part of that delegation, Gagnard’s unique take on where Ukraine is today when it comes to its use and development of war technologies like unmanned systems – provided some ground truth about where it may be headed. #TheCipherBrief

How Long Can Ukraine Fight? Cipher Brief Experts assess Ukraine’s chances as hopes wane for a truce. #TheCipherBrief

What led to the downward spiral in US-China relations over the past 50 years? And how should the US deal with #XiJinping's China? David Shambaugh’s newest book Breaking the Engagement: How #China Won and Lost America seeks to answer those questions. Paul Heer reviews the book in #TheCipherBrief.